noamscheiber
Noam Scheiber
If Obama wins, look forward to all my political scientist friends explaining to me again why personality and advertising don't matter.
monkeycageblog
The Monkey Cage
.@noamscheiber You may be waiting awhile, since that's not what political scientists think.
.@noamscheiber You may be waiting awhile, since that's not what political scientists think.
noamscheiber
Noam Scheiber
@monkeycageblog Surely the CW among political scientists is that structural forces like the economy should way overwhelm them.
@monkeycageblog Surely the CW among political scientists is that structural forces like the economy should way overwhelm them.
DaveMc99TA
Dave McW
@noamscheiber CW/Intrade/Forecasts/Keys have been for an Obama win all year pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/index.php/poll…
@noamscheiber CW/Intrade/Forecasts/Keys have been for an Obama win all year pollyvote.forecastingprinciples.com/index.php/poll…
monkeycageblog
The Monkey Cage
.@noamscheiber Structure matters, but this doesn't mean "personality and advertising don't matter" -- e.g., my #3 here: themonkeycage.org/blog/2011/08/0…
.@noamscheiber Structure matters, but this doesn't mean "personality and advertising don't matter" -- e.g., my #3 here: themonkeycage.org/blog/2011/08/0…
noamscheiber
Noam Scheiber
@monkeycageblog I stand by my view: If Obama wins, it will not be a very good day for political scientists who study US presidential races.
@monkeycageblog I stand by my view: If Obama wins, it will not be a very good day for political scientists who study US presidential races.
prowag
Mike Wagner
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Can you please point to the political scientists who are claiming Obama is a sure loser?
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Can you please point to the political scientists who are claiming Obama is a sure loser?
prowag
Mike Wagner
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Then why is an Obama win a bad day for political scientists?
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Then why is an Obama win a bad day for political scientists?
noamscheiber
Noam Scheiber
@prowag @monkeycageblog just claiming that a theory that says structural factors shld predominate, except when they dont, isnt so impressive
@prowag @monkeycageblog just claiming that a theory that says structural factors shld predominate, except when they dont, isnt so impressive
prowag
Mike Wagner
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog I think you slightly misread the theory. We can't create the structure. This structure suggests a close one.
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog I think you slightly misread the theory. We can't create the structure. This structure suggests a close one.
noamscheiber
Noam Scheiber
@prowag @monkeycageblog fair enough. i will read the literature that's piling up here and report back, at which point we can reconvene...
@prowag @monkeycageblog fair enough. i will read the literature that's piling up here and report back, at which point we can reconvene...
BrendanNyhan
Brendan Nyhan
@noamscheiber @prowag @monkeycageblog Think u r overstating econ weakness-eg Silver composite measure says close to 04 fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/mea…
@noamscheiber @prowag @monkeycageblog Think u r overstating econ weakness-eg Silver composite measure says close to 04 fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/mea…
BrendanNyhan
Brendan Nyhan
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Not clear why would be bad for PS- Obama has structural adv as 1st term pres + econ in range for marginal win
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Not clear why would be bad for PS- Obama has structural adv as 1st term pres + econ in range for marginal win
prowag
Mike Wagner
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Here's @smotus predicting a close race where campaigns matter. In July. 2011. enikrising.blogspot.com/2011/07/electi…
@noamscheiber @monkeycageblog Here's @smotus predicting a close race where campaigns matter. In July. 2011. enikrising.blogspot.com/2011/07/electi…
noamscheiber
Noam Scheiber
@monkeycageblog Obama shouldn't win if the economy is far and away the most important factor, but campaigns matter at the margins.
@monkeycageblog Obama shouldn't win if the economy is far and away the most important factor, but campaigns matter at the margins.
prowag
Mike Wagner
@noamscheiber ?? Pretty much every political scientist I know says the election will be close and most think those things matter.
@noamscheiber ?? Pretty much every political scientist I know says the election will be close and most think those things matter.